July 2023 isn’t even over, and it’s projected to be the hottest month humanity has ever experienced. And human activity, in particular the burning of fossil fuels, is to blame.
In separate announcements Thursday, scientists at both the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and Germany’s Leipzig University revealed that the mean global temperature for the month would clock in 0.2 Celsius (0.4 Fahrenheit) warmer than the previous hottest month of July 2019.
Data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service showed that the first three weeks of the month had been the warmest three-week period on record. On the same day, analysis from Karsten Haustein, a climate scientist at Leipzig University, indicated that the planet has not seen such high temperatures for 120,000 years. But the record has not surprised climate watchers, given that July 4 was reported to have been Earth’s hottest single day in at least 100,000 years (the WMO notes that, subsequently, July 6 was even hotter).
Haustein told media: “Based on preliminary data, including forecast temperatures until the end of the month, it is virtually certain that July 2023 is going to be the warmest July by a wide margin with ~0.2 degrees Celsius [with a margin of error of +/-0.1 degrees Celsius] above the previous record. Not only will it be the warmest July, but the warmest month ever in terms of absolute global mean temperature. We may have to go back thousands if not tens of thousands of years to find similarly warm conditions on our planet.”
Carlo Buontempo, Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) at European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, said: “Record-breaking temperatures are part of the trend of drastic increases in global temperatures. Anthropogenic emissions are ultimately the main driver of these rising temperatures.”
Buontempo added that there was more to come.
“July’s record is unlikely to remain isolated this year: C3S’ seasonal forecasts indicate that over land areas temperatures are likely to be well above average, exceeding the 80th percentile of climatology for the time of year.”
The news comes as deadly wildfires continue to spread through southern Europe and North Africa, with uncontrolled blazes reported in Italy, Croatia, Algeria, Tunisia, Portugal, Spain and Greece. At least 40 people are so far known to have been killed by the fires. Records wildfires also continue to burn across Canada, shrouding much of North America in smoke.
Responding to the Greek fires, Guillermo Rein, Professor of Fire Science at Imperial College London explained: “There have always been wildfires in the South but climate change is making them larger, faster, and harder to stop.
“The intense heat of the summer dries vegetation and makes it very flammable, easier to catch fire. A heat wave or an unusually hot summer leads to even more flammable forests.”
Meanwhile, in Antarctica, sea ice levels have hit their lowest winter level ever recorded, during a phase that is supposed to see ice growth. Also this week, off the coast of Florida, researchers recorded the highest sea temperature ever seen in the region—comparable to hot tub levels.
World Weather Attribution, a network of scientists who analyse the causes of weather events, announced on Tuesday that human-caused climate change had made July’s extreme temperatures far more likely. Researcher Friederike Otto, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment at Imperial College London, posted on social media that the finding was “totally unsurprising” but that “we need to adapt, we need to stop making it worse.”
Responding to the news from Leipzig, Gareth Redmond-King, Head of International Programme at the U.K.-based Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit said: “Last year was the U.K’s hottest. We’ve just had the hottest June, a succession of the world’s hottest days, and hottest sea surface temperatures. Heat records tumble, wildfires rage, Antarctic sea-ice is at its lowest by some considerable way, and dangerous storms are flooding towns and cities in many parts of the world. And now July is the hottest month ever experienced by modern humans.”
He continued: “These are ever more urgent reminders that if we don’t bring emissions down to net zero, these extremes will continue to get worse. That means heat humps and energy efficiency for our homes, electric vehicles on our roads, and more wind and solar to power it all.”
Sir David King, a former British Chief Scientific Adviser and head of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group, said: “It is simply not enough to adapt to these current high temperatures – they are only going to continue to rise and the road is fast running out. We must do much more. We must recognise that this is the most severe crisis our civilisation has ever had to face up to, and decide on the actions needed to reach net zero emissions as quickly as possible. The only way to tackle this is through deep and rapid emissions reductions, removal of excess greenhouse gases already emitted and steps to repair the Arctic region whilst building resilience into every part of the climate system. Only then do we give ourselves the best chance of a safe and manageable future for humanity.”
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