Budgets for next year usually need cost increase assumptions, especially for labor but also for other business expenses. The big picture is that inflation is still running fairly high, though not as bad as last year. This article presents the most recent actual data as well as forecasts, finishing with a perspective on setting wage increases. (See Data Note at the end of this article for easy access to the numbers.)
Recent Inflation Data
The most common inflation measure, the Consumer Price Index, rose 3.7% over the past 12 months. A year ago the gain was 8.2%. The drop reflected some decline in core inflation plus a fall in energy prices.
Economists tend to prefer another measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, which also increased 3.3%. This measure averages about half a percentage point lower than the CPI, but right now they are close.
Average hourly earnings rose 4.5% over the past 12 months, exceeding inflation. Wages across the economy grow about one percentage point faster than inflation over the long run, despite periodic articles asserting that pay does not keep up with the cost of living. The data match basic economics. Wages reflect the value of worker production. If productivity did not change, the value of production would increase with inflation. But physical productivity per hour worked grows by about one percent a year due to technological improvements as well as increased use of machinery, equipment and computers. So inflation plus one percent is the long run wage gain. But that does not hold true in any particular year, just on average.
Average hourly earnings varies not just with wage increases but also from the mix of employment. In the pandemic, for example, many low-paid workers in restaurants and stores lost their jobs, while highly paid office people could work remotely. That pushed the average wage up, even though the job market was really slack. To solve that data problem, another measure tracks like-for-like jobs over time: the Employment Cost Index. Over the most recent four quarters, the overall ECI rose 4.5%, matching the rise in average hourly earnings. The ECI reflects the total cost of employment, with subcategories for wages and salaries (up 4.6%) and benefits (up 3.9%).
Inflation Forecasts
Surveys of economists provide a prediction of the economy. The Survey of Professional Forecasters shows the median prediction for 2024 inflation is 2.5% (CPI) and 2.4% (PCE). The Wall Street Journal survey shows similar results.
My own forecast is a bit less optimistic, looking for about three percent inflation in 2024, measured from year-end to year-end.
Wage Setting
Companies do not need to match inflation when setting wages, but keeping it in mind makes sense. The most important issue is whether employees can get significantly better pay somewhere else. The national unemployment rate ticked up a bit in August but remains low at 3.8%. The quit rate has trended downward while the number of job openings has dropped. This all suggests the labor market has slacked a little, but just a little.
Better than national data is a company’s own experience. Are employees quitting? Are people applying for jobs at the company?
A business can also look at its local market. Right now the range is pretty narrow from one region to another, but at times pronounced differences based on geography have been prevalent.
Despite the data, wage decisions come down to judgment calls about the company’s labor needs and the availability of workers. Executives who fear that we are headed into recession will want to conserve cash, and they won’t worry about losing some employees to higher-paying companies. But business leaders anticipating economic expansion should remember the recent hiring challenge and pay up to keep good workers. That judgment should reflect the market for a company’s goods and services rather than the overall economy.
Non-labor Business Costs
Wages and benefits constitute the largest cost for many companies, but each business is different. For non-labor expenses, most companies are price takers rather than price setters. Unlike wages, the business pays prices determined by suppliers, with only a little room for negotiation. That makes decision-making easier but forecasting harder.
Most expenses can be categorized into broad categories, such as energy, real estate, and so forth. The categories will differ from company to company. Companies dependent on particular commodities will, of course, study those markets.
Data Note: All of the data cited are available free of charge on the FRED database, a service of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The labels associated with each concept are not necessary but help users get the correct data series. Copy the label into the FRED search area.
Consumer Price Index: CPIAUCSL
Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index: PCEPI
Average Hourly Earnings: AHETPI
Employment Cost Index, total compensation: ECICOM
Employment Cost Index, wages and salaries: ECIWAG
Employment Cost Index, benefits: ECIBEN
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