TikTok reigns supreme in the social media space.
The video sharing app gets all of the attention because, for starters, millions of people keep downloading it all over the world. I wrote recently about how the algorithm is so powerful it knows what we want to see and keeps us hooked.
Ask anyone these days which app seems to be the rising star and you will likely hear about TikTok instead of Facebook or Twitter. It’s constantly trending.
That’s why a recent report by Statista Market Insights suggesting another app will dethrone TikTok by 2027 seemed so surprising.
You may have heard of it.
That’s right, it’s Instagram.
For a refresher on the history of these apps, one report explained all of the salient details. Let’s start with Instagram, the underdog among the big three (which includes Facebook and TikTok — sadly, Twitter is in such steep decline of late that it barely registers on these reports).
Instagram grew about 53% over the last four years, hitting 1.33 billion users. Facebook outpaced its sister app (both owned by Meta) and grew to a whopping 2.72 billion users in that same period. Curious to note that the growth rate was only 36%, but I’m sure Mark Zuckerberg isn’t complaining too much. Facebook is still on the top of the social media food chain.
Then there’s TikTok. During that same four-year period, TikTok grew by 202% (thanks to all of those downloads I’m sure) to hit 1.92 billion users in 2023. Great — case closed, right? We now know why TikTok seems to be so dominant among social media users.
But hold that thought. Statista estimates that, over the next four years, Instagram will grow by 17.2% (or 234 million new users) compared to 17% (or 327 million) for TikTok. Facebook is losing favor, they claim, and will experience a growth rate of only 14% (391 million new users).
Growth rates are critically important because they determine what is actually trending over time, as opposed to a mere feeling. The Statista report makes it clear that Instagram will grow faster than TikTok and Facebook, even if the total user count will be far less.
Okay, let’s parse this out a bit. What’s really happening?
To me, the growth rate of TikTok is a major anomaly. 202% is phenomenal growth for an app that doesn’t really do anything but show you videos one after the other. Say what you want about the influencer market, how much video is trending across all apps, or even our own shortening attention spans, the truth is that TikTok does seem like a fad.
Meanwhile, Instagram has a rich feature set. It’s implanted into culture in a way that’s hard to deny. Stories, photo galleries, videos, pithy statements — Instagram has it all. Tellingly, when Elon Musk recently challenged Mark Zuckerberg to a cage match fight (which was likely all in jest, maybe), Zuckerberg used Instagram to respond. “Send me the location,” he posted.
TikTok is like an energy drink you get hooked on for a while. Instagram is like coffee. Trends come and go, and the TikTok algorithm is definitely impressive. Instagram simply has more to offer, can help people build their brand, is perfect for photos and videos, and has the staying power that TikTok lasts.
It will be fun to see if the predictions prove to be accurate.
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