In a world marked by relentless technological innovation, there is a megatrend on the horizon that promises to reshape industries, revolutionize everyday life, and open up vast economic opportunities.
Anything that moves in the future will be autonomous! My team of foresight specialists at MarketsandMarkets have coined this as an Autonomous World – a Mega Trend that could be worth a $10+ trillion market across mobility, aerospace & defense, mining, construction, industrial, and other sectors.
This autonomous world encompasses a spectrum of possibilities, from self-driving cars and off-highway machinery to autonomous mining operations, autonomous factories, and even surgical tools within medical facilities. Anything with wheels, legs, or arms will be autonomous in the future. It is not a question of if but about when, and that train has already left the station.
We will see more and more autonomy impacting our personal lives here onwards.
A Journey Rooted in History
An autonomous world is not a new phenomenon. It actually started somewhere in the 1st century BC when the first water wheels were invented. We as humans have been constantly trying to automate equipment, and it picked up pace during the Renaissance period. It came to fruition between the 1st and 2nd Industrial Revolution, with humans discovering molecules and, eventually, electrons. The word ‘automation’ was actually coined by none other than Ford Motor Company in the 1940s when it created an automation department. Developing electric and industrial feedback controllers was the critical driver for things getting semi-automated.
With the discovery of electro magnetic waves (that led to the invention of mobile phones eventually), IT and digital technology (which led to the invention of IoT), we now have a large number of semi-automated machines that work in our factories or even Space probes that fly around millions of miles exploring our solar system. With more and more productive labor constrictions across developed economies and the advent of more robotics, we are now moving to a Mega Trend of a fully autonomous world as we move from Narrow AI to General AI (AGI) The Mega Trend of the Autonomous World is driven by two other megatrends – the hyper-connected world and technology singularity.
Driving Forces
The hyper-connected world is set to become the backbone of autonomy. The convergence of 5G technology and Space Jam will play pivotal roles in propelling autonomy forward. With 5G, we are witnessing a reduced latency to unprecedented levels, a mere one microsecond. The anticipated evolution to 6G later in this decade promises further enhancement. The Space Jam revolution, on the other hand, offers dual benefits—enhanced global positioning systems and lightning-fast broadband speeds (in future same as 5G today), keeping our machines and cars out in the rural areas always connected. The synergy of these developments paves the way for seamless connectivity between machines to machines and machines to humans, enabling a new era of autonomous vehicles and devices.
Technology singularity, a concept where AI evolves from Narrow to General AI, is another driver of the autonomous world. The trajectory towards a fully autonomous world accelerates as we progress towards super AI. Although this transformation is not immediate and is expected to take 10 to 15 years, the journey is undeniable. This transition signifies a monumental shift from the semi-autonomous vehicles we see today to a future where complete autonomy is the norm.
In my pursuit of understanding and dissecting the complexities of this Autonomous World, I had the privilege of engaging in conversation with Karthikeyan (Karthik) Natarajan, the visionary CEO of Cyient, a company that’s at the forefront of enabling this transformative future. Over the years, I’ve had the opportunity to witness Karthik’s dedication to innovation and technology firsthand.
Pioneering the Autonomous Revolution
Karthik’s extensive experience and visionary leadership have positioned Cyient as a driving force behind the transition to an Autonomous World (In his short period , he has helped Cyient to be a technology led business machine)
As we delve deeper into the Autonomous World, we explore various facets of this burgeoning trend:
1. Trends Fueling the Autonomous Revolution
Karthik emphasized the profound impact of autonomy, not just in terms of decision-making but also as a catalyst for safety, reduced labor dependence, and increased productivity. The shift towards autonomy is set to significantly impact Western economies, where a shrinking workforce is becoming increasingly evident. One striking example is a mining customer in Chile who recently made a significant leap into autonomy. This customer invested in 200 autonomous trucks and established a Remote Observatory Center (ROC). While this center is focused on observation, it’s essential to note that the company still retains 200 human drivers on its trucks, along with 200 drivers in the ROC. These truck drivers now work in conjunction with the ROC, overseeing workflow, troubleshooting issues, and conducting unscheduled maintenance. This approach is part of a six-year journey that will gradually reduce human involvement by 50% at different stages. The ultimate goal is a fully remote operating setup, driven not just by cost but by a strong commitment to improving safety and productivity.
2. The Roadmap to Full Autonomy
Full autonomy will emerge, but it might still be a decade or more away. Where will we see it first? Autonomy might start in places you wouldn’t expect. The initial forays into autonomy could emerge in closed and restricted environments like mining, construction, agriculture, marine, space, and even the airside of airports. These environments are safer for machines to learn to be autonomous before they hit the roads. As Karthik said, “It’s an automation journey leading to autonomous. It translates in various forms in other industries. But I think that is definitely coming.”
3. Autonomy Across Industries
The conversation ventured into various sectors, demonstrating that autonomy is not limited to a particular domain. It encompasses a wide range of industries, from mining and construction to healthcare and transportation. The overarching goal is not to replace human workers but to enhance their capabilities. By reducing manual intervention, errors, and downtime, autonomy can significantly improve efficiency and operational reliability.
For instance, Karthik shared a compelling vision for heavy cranes and trucks in shipyards. Instead of merely selling equipment, companies could provide comprehensive solutions. This could include integrating autonomous features, predictive maintenance, workflow planning, and sophisticated communication systems. Such an approach has the potential to elevate productivity, reduce downtime, and ultimately reshape the way industries operate.
4. Cyient’s Role in Enabling an Autonomous World
Karthik highlighted Cyient’s capabilities in developing perception systems, geo-positioning systems for path planning, AI hardware for edge intelligence, and real-time decision-making to enhance safety and productivity. As per Karthik, “At Cyient we believe, a Perception System augmenting perception of operator improving visibility around the machine will improve safety and will be first step towards automating machine operations. Cyient is therefore building a scalable and modular perception system that will provide a view of objects (vulnerable users, machines, items etc), using sensors like Camera, Radar and Ultrasonic sensors. In addition, it will enable Multi-weather operational capabilities and Day & Night operations”. In other words, Cyient seems to be keen to provide an integrated one stop solution that in my view is the best way forward for anyone entering this market.
5. Societal and Corporate Implications
The emergence of the Autonomous World carries profound implications for society and the corporate landscape. No matter what we say, there will be an impact on jobs and society. However, will this be different from when we introduced automation in factories? Automation accelerated job creation, and instead of doing labor-intensive jobs in fields, we now have higher-income skilled workers in factories. And in the future, the autonomous world will additionally provide a lot more diversity with a better work-life balance and an opportunity for the aging workforce to work longer as the pension age starts at 70.
As we navigate the path to the Autonomous World, it’s essential to recognize that this journey is not about machines replacing humans but augmenting, assisting, and reducing manual interventions. It’s a journey towards greater productivity, safety, and efficiency.
The Way Forward
Karthik’s insights into the economic potential of the Autonomous World are intriguing. He noted that a significant portion of the $32 trillion industry is poised to adopt autonomous technologies. As a result, the journey towards autonomy, with its defined milestones, could potentially unlock a $10 trillion opportunity by the middle of this century.
As with life and success and many other endeavors, it’s not as much about the destination as the journey and the attitude you harbor along the way. And this rewarding journey demands curiosity, inquisitiveness, and a relentless pursuit of knowledge—qualities that Karthik and innovators like him embody daily with their passion for technology and the drive to create a safer, more efficient, and more sustainable world.
So, let’s un-fasten our seatbelts, let go of the steering wheel (hands off), the brake paddle (feet off), look away from the road in front (eyes off) and embark on this transformative journey to the Autonomous World eventually with our mind and brain off when on the wheels.
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