Topline
Covid cases and hospitalizations are on the rise, the latest data from the CDC show, bucking the downward trend since the start of this year and offering a first preview of the coming flu season.
Key Facts
Covid might not yet have had its last: hospitalizations rose 12.1% during the week of July 22, while the past month saw the first uptick of hospitalizations since last October.
Wastewater monitoring showed a sustained increase in positive Covid tests throughout July, and Walgreens’ Covid tracker reported a 42% test positivity rate as of last week.
The most positive test cases are unfolding across the northeast and the south.
The trends potentially point to waning immunity: as of this May, just 17% of the U.S. population received the most recent bivalent booster and for the immunocompromised and vulnerable, experts continue to recommend masking and social distancing.
The uptick of cases likely isn’t cause for alarm, though: most Covid cases are mild, and the number of weekly deaths from the virus are at their lowest since the start of the pandemic, according to CDC data.
Pfizer’s updated booster vaccine—which could earn FDA approval by as early as next month—would target the XBB.1.5 strain and work just as effectively against the now-dominant XBB.1.6 strain.
What To Watch For
Covid cases have risen over the summer for the past four years, and they could be a harbinger for this coming fall and winter: at worst, scientists forecast 839,000 Covid hospitalizations with 87,000 deaths, and—at best—484,000 hospitalizations leading to 45,000 deaths over the months ahead. The most concerning scenario for this year’s flu season would involve a rise in Covid cases coupled with R.S.V. and influenza that could easily overwhelm hospitals as it did last year.
Key Background
Like more seasonal viruses, Covid is now mutating at a more constant rate but in multiple directions—meaning that we could be contending with plenty of different viral types instead of a single dominant variant.This is the first rise in positive Covid cases since Biden brought the Covid public health emergency to an end in May. The CDC data show a virus rounding closer into seasonal flu form: most cases are milder and the number of deaths sit at all-time lows, making it unlikely to disrupt social activities at the same scale as it did previously. Still, experts advise plenty of caution. Covid is more dangerous than its influenza and RSV counterparts, claiming 39,048 lives between last November and January and straining healthcare systems. The virus’ summer rise repeats a trend that has been ongoing for the past four years, but the outlook for the flu season this time around will be harder to predict—we might not know its full lethality until months from now. Taking health precautions are as important as ever: experts predict that vaccinations could curb hospitalizations by 20%.
Crucial Quote
“Based on these projections, Covid is likely to remain in the leading causes of death in the United States for the foreseeable future,” Justin Lessler, an epidemiologist at the UNC Gillings School of Global Public Health, told the New York Times.
Tangent
Pfizer warned of declining revenue from Covid booster shorts this Tuesday, with vaccine sales plummeting 83% in the second quarter. Moderna reported a similar 94% drop, but now expects $8 billion in Covid vaccine sales for this fall. The FDA could authorize Pfizer’s latest booster vaccine by the end of this month. News of the vaccine rollout comes just a week after the Biden administration announced a $1.15 billion research program to study the effects of long Covid.
NIH Opens Clinical Trials For Long Covid Treatment (Forbes)
Pfizer Expects Signoff For New Covid Boosters As Soon As This Month. Here’s What To Know—And Why They’re Needed (Forbes)
What the new Covid-19 surge really means (Politico)
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