C-Suites today are wrestling with what to do about AI. Fast-forward a quarter of a century and today’s concerns will be laughable. While it’s always fun to play futurist, there are clues to business circa 2050 that can help strategists define their future business models and processes – not for 2050 but for the next 5-7 years. Let’s take a look at some technology-enabled business models that will be normalized by mid-century – technologies and applications no one will want to “pause.”
Any value with this exercise? Absolutely. If nothing else it helps us think outside the box we place ourselves every time we look at a quarterly earnings report. It also helps us extrapolate beyond the business models we’re so convinced will take us to the competitive promised land. So step back and think about where you’re going – especially if you believe that time flies.
Automation
Automation technology – of course “AI” in all of its glory – will be commonplace. In fact, it will be invisible powering nearly everything. We’ve not even begun to define the range of processes and models that will be automated in 25 years. Suffice it to say that today what humans do will be replaced by software (actually, distributed chips) and robotics. The short list? Auditors, manufacturers, lawyers, diagnosticians, salespersons, teachers, marketers, programmers, researchers, writers, couriers, customer servicers, food preparation and drivers among what Goldman Sachs says could be 300 million jobs.
The number of jobs that will be automated is impossible to predict but the trends are inevitable. How many companies see their business processes and whole business models as automation candidates? While 2050 is a long way off, it’s time to brainstorm along an automation continuum which will absolutely, positively impact your business much sooner than 2050.
Climate
The climate crisis is obviously real. The idea that it’s still “unsettled science” is ludicrous. By 2050, climate change will have wreaked havoc on planet earth. If technology cannot at least pause the effects of climate change the earth itself may be in peril. No?
“Climate shifts like heat waves could restrict the ability of people to work outdoor, and, in extreme cases, put their lives at risk.
“Extreme hot weather could significantly lower the efficiency of the power systems around the world.
“By 2050, glacial loss will reach 70 percent in the Andes; the summer monsoons in China will fail, and water flows into the great rivers of Asia will be severely reduced by the loss of more than one-third of the Himalayan ice sheet.
“By 2050, outdoor air pollution particulate matter and ground-level ozone is projected to become the top cause of environmentally related deaths worldwide.
“By 2050, more than half of the global population (57%) will live in areas that suffer water scarcity at least one month each year.
“Between 2030 and 2050, climate change impacts will cause 250,000 more deaths globally each year, mainly from malnutrition, malaria, diarrhea, and heat stress.”
It remains to be seen if climate changes can be reversed with technology. Technology is literally the earth’s last great hope. Invest today? Create today? An easy trend to identify. Is your business model anywhere close to the requirements here? Alternative energy? Carbon reduction? Should you move a little closer? Should you invest in (white) paint?
Food
Food will change:
“By 2050, cultivated meat, high-protein insects, seaweed and algae, and allergen-free nuts will be the most sustainable protein sources to support an increasingly growing population … by 2050, billions of people will not have sustainable access to safe, nutritious food. The consequences of such a scenario wouldn’t just be devastating for people in the hardest hit areas. It would send shockwaves around the globe, potentially sparking violent conflict, an economic downturn, and migration of populations en masse the likes of which the world has never seen.”
There will be new safety issues, distribution issues and, of course, issues that speak to taste. Food farming will be everywhere as the climate discourages “regular” farming. Anything here for you?
Manufacturing
The shortage of manufacturing professionals as well as the shortage of so-called blue-collar labor will accelerate manufacturing opportunities. By 2050:
“Powerful trends will push manufacturing close to complete automation by 2050, while the people still working in the industry will be empowered to rapidly innovate like never before.
“Years ago Warren Bennis predicted that, ‘The factory of the future will have only two employees, a man and a dog. The man will be there to feed the dog. The dog will be there to keep the man from touching the equipment.’”
There’s more:
“The elephant in the room for many manufacturers is the extent to which 3D printing will alter the technology mix, and beyond that, its implications for product design and a host of other issues. So far, the speed limitations and high raw material costs of additive manufacturing have severely limited its viability beyond prototyping. But Terry Wohlers … said speed ‘won’t be an enemy’ by 2050.”
Integration, automation, coordination, supply chain optimization – you name it – will define 2050 manufacturing. Where do you sit in this process?
Disease
Some good news. It’s likely that an array of diseases will be eliminated or treatable by 2050, including cancer, Alzheimer’s, AIDs, Ebola, malaria and heart disease. Gene therapies are everywhere and there are even 3D printed organs. Bionic replacement will be standard procedure for damaged or lost limbs. All that good news said, “drug-resistant infections will kill more people than cancer by 2050.” Healthcare in all of its permutations may become the largest single business opportunity of the 21st century. Where are you?
Miscellaneous
There’s an unending list of 2050 predictions. Here are just a few:
- “Nanobots will plug our brains straight into the cloud
- People reincarnation through AI
- AI will become a positive net job motivator
- ChatGPT becomes of the main tools at work in every single industry
- IoT technology will change product designs
- Space tourism: a week in orbit
- Self-driving cars will make driving safer
- Charge your iPhone with the power of a plant
- Ocean Thermal Energy can take us to 100% renewable-energy
- EU will face a shortage of IT workers
- Drone solution for discovering untouched places
- Half of current jobs in the world are unlikely to exist in 2050.”
Surely one or more of these predictions will stimulate some thinking.
Scenario Thinking
2050 scenarios – as strange as they might feel today – provide a lens through which business processes, models and whole business strategies can be reimagined:
“Working with the future scenarios for 2050 has been a catalyst for major changes in the company. We were ready for change, but the process has helped us redefine our vision and strategy.”
Sure, 2050 is a long way off, but the macro trends identified here will hopefully simulate some thinking about tomorrow. 2050 predictions provide a laboratory for thought that might just yield some shorter-term benefits.
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