August 6 update below. This post was first published on 4 August 2023.
Apple’s big September special event, almost every year, is when it reveals its iPhones. This year, it’s likely there will be new Apple Watch models alongside (including a stunning new look for the Apple Watch Ultra, it seems).
Unless the world turns upside down, we’re expecting the iPhone 15, iPhone 15 Plus, iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max to be announced this fall, so the only question is when. I’ve talked about exactly when I think the new phones will be announced, and when they will go on sale, here.
But a new report has suggested this might change slightly. According to Filipe Espósito at 9to5Mac, the publication has heard from “multiple sources” that mobile carriers have been asking employees not to take the day off on Wednesday, September 13 “due to a major smartphone announcement.” Though Apple is not mentioned by name, it’s not a hard piece to fit in the puzzle: a rival manufacturer would be pretty crazy to try and launch a phone at the point in the year when all focus will be on Apple. Besides which, there are no expectations of new models from any other brands at this time of year.
As you’ll see from my other post, I have been predicting that the unveiling would be either on Wednesday, September 6 or Tuesday, September 12. I had hoped that it might be the earlier of these two but recognized that things were still fluid and no decision had been made. So, this new date is different.
Actually, I don’t think Tuesday, September 12 has been entirely ruled out, even if September 6 is likely a no-go. That’s because Apple usually likes to announce on a Tuesday and the only usual exception to this is if Labor Day falls in the same week. It’s Monday, September 4 this year.
Maybe the cellphone carriers believe that the day after the announcement could be the busy day for them rather than the day itself.
Or how about this? Apple usually starts pre-orders on the Friday after it unveils its products. But seeing as how the announcement is happening in the second of the most likely weeks, maybe Apple is going to break with tradition and open pre-orders on Wednesday, September 13 instead. If the carriers know this, then that’s the day they can expect to be super-busy.
Of course, I fully accept that it’s highly possible that I was simply wrong and Wednesday, September 13 at 10 a.m. Pacific is when Tim Cook will take to the stage of the Steve Jobs Theater to welcome guests to the keynote.
I think 9to5Mac’s report is enough to at least confirm the week of the announcement. And either way, I would expect that the iPhone 15 will hit stores on Friday, September 22. There are reports that one or more of the four phones will be delayed, as the iPhone 14 Plus was last year, but at least some of them will be on sale then. More news as it breaks.
August 6 update. A new voice has been heard on the subject of the date of the release of the next iPhones, and the unveil date that precedes it. According to Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman in his latest Power On newsletter, both dates are more or less set now. Gurman isn’t always right, but what he says needs to be taken seriously.
And the fact that it correlates with the dates predicted elsewhere in this post certainly adds weight to the idea that they are correct. For a start, his predicted onsale date matches mine. Gurman refers to the iPhone 15, “which I’m told will go on sale around Sept. 22,” he says. In fact, I’ll go a little further than he does: I think it will be exactly Friday, September, 22, not “around”. For years, Apple’s biggest products have always gone on sale on a Friday, with very few exceptions, and I’d be astonished if this was an exception year. So far, so good.
I had previously thought that the release date could have been a week earlier, Friday, September 15, and that would certainly seem to fit with Gurman’s thesis that Apple needs to boost its sales figures as fast as it can. Releasing the iPhones on September 22 means there are only nine days of iPhone sales that can be factored into the next quarterly financial results. So, it’s my believe that Apple would have strained every sinew to release the iPhones a week earlier, so it had 16 days of iPhone sales for the next quarter. It’s still not impossible that the earlier date could happen, of course, but it seems less likely, especially if there has been any grounds to the rumors that production issues have slowed Apple down. On the other hand, the later release date means an even more bumper following quarter, which could be all Apple needs to announce “record iPhone sales”, for instance.
Gurman then says that the release will come just after, “an event planned for either Sept. 12 or Sept. 13.” That tallies with what you’ve read above. And I note that Gurman can’t quite rule out September 12, perhaps because, like me, he thinks that a Tuesday announcement is still more likely.
More voices will doubtless pipe up in this debate. Please check back to see what those voices have to add.
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